Brazil economy develops true facts
Store in the USD 350,000,000,000 foreign exchange and the ex- decade of 21th century of trillion U.S. dollar clean obligation is global the newly arisen market yields unusually brilliant results of decade.The magpies rises from 2003 of"gold brick four countries", guided the whole emerging economies more is to the growth of global economy.With China in the new century decade in of fly hurriedly long similar, Brazil, also from long term poor of pull the United States the region outshine others.In 2011, GDP scale in the Brazil exceeds England for the very first time, lines up after the United States, China and Japan, Germany and France and becomes the sixth economy in the world.This outstrips it to raise and becomes "beautiful jacket" of Brazil economy.The Brazil is an own trade surplus and a large amount of foreign exchange stores of nation, Brazil trade surplus is USD 29,800,000,000 in 2011, 2010 is USD 20,200,000,000, tallest in 2006 more once attained USD 46,500,000,000.Get into a new century, the Brazil starts keeping on trade surplus from 2001, 2001~2011 in the last yearses, 11 yearses, total amount trade surplus attains USD 305,600,000,000.Up to the end of 2011, Brazil foreign exchange storage surplus amount increases to USD 352,000,000,000, but in 2000 year-ends, this number returns only USD 33,000,000,000.A set of number like this seems to be very only fresh, but actually, the Brazil is a clean obligation country, and new century of 10 the middle of the year, its obligation scale continuously enlarges, in 2010 second quarter degree, Brazil it the international clean obligation ready cash is up to USD 975,700,000,000 and approach clean obligation an U.S. dollar.Light fresh GDP outward appearance under include how of hidden facts?What is "true facts" that Brazil economy develops?90's in last century, the Brazil carries on privatization to the financial market and outward opens, the internationalization degree of financial system in the Brazil and capital market has been very high currently.The Brazil outward opened to draw on in great quantities international capital to flow out to go into, this brought Brazil opportunity and brilliancy, but also brought Brazil another side.Ten several in the last yearses, the international capital flows out to go into to make the Brazil become long term of clean liabilities big country, also laid hands on huge sum of investment income(benefit USD 416,100,000,000 up to now in 2000), compared 2.1 GDP total amounts of U.S. dollar(2010) in Brazil to say, very considerable.From a different angle come to see, due to paying the demand of a huge sum of investment income to the international capital the Brazil's year often maintains a huge income item unfavorable variance, this structure and form that causes BE, although the Brazil maintained the trade item of recent decade surplus, but Brazil at re- acquire for the last few years large-scalely an item the deficit is usually.Formed a circulating phenomenon from here, the namely international capital inflow Brazil acquired a huge sum of investment income and result in Brazil usually the item weigh to return to large-scale deficit, but also need as for international receipt and expenditure indentation that result in from here international capital of continue to flow into to fill up.Big investment income of international capital, with as for use 12 in the last years all trade surpluses in Brazil still far not enough with pay the international capital same period acquires of investment income, the Brazil has already for the country become a long term border the capital do a part-time job of nation.The data that the international capital is large-scale to flow out to go into from the international investment ready cash to see, the Brazil is the clean obligation country of the name matches the reality.Brazil international investment clean ready cash(namely Brazil outward property and Brazil outward fall into debt of bad value) is over a long period of time negative value, and bad value present to extend trend.2011 two quarter degree, Brazil international investment the clean ready cash attain tallest cheap sunglassesof-USD 975,700,000,000, this means the Brazil is clean to fall into debt about an U.S. dollar.The then foreign exchange in the Brazil stores only USD 317,100,000,000 of property, in 2010 GDP in the Brazil about 2.1 u.s. dollars, this means that clean liabilities scale in the Brazil approaches 50% of GDP, and far far above its scale of storage property.Come to see alone, liabilities in the Brazil overseas presents to increase trend over a long period of time, particularly is financial crisis for the last few years behind, liabilities in the Brazil overseas presents quickly, the situation of large-scale increment, this actually what to reflect is the madness of the international capital to flow out to go into.2008 the four seasons degree, liabilities in the Brazil overseas is USD 691,600,000,000, the three quarters degree attains 1.42 u.s. dollars(USD 1,420,300,000,000) and increased 105% in less than three years to 2011, and the clean increment sum attains USD 728,700,000,000.The last few years international capital flows out to go into crazily toward the Brazil of phenomenon, the financial account fluctuation can see clearer in meaningly from the capital within Brazil balance of payments form.Financial crisis period, the international centralization of capital escapes, the Brazil capital financial account experienced violent motion, lowest fall into a deficit of above USD 20,000,000,000, later on, along with beautiful allied keep quantity to turn relaxed policy etc. all countries stimulate policy set, financial market and economy situation the Qi is steady, international capital and then flow out into Brazil by more crary situation, the its capital financial account jumps to rise to again clean flow into USD 30,000,000,000, go to in 2011 a quarterly degree to attain tallest of clean flow into USD 43,500,000,000, 2011 the whole year is clean to flow into USD 111,900,000,000, attain annual capital of financial account surplus history new high that has ever had.Often the year pays toward the international capital a huge sum of investment's income flows out with in great quantities international capital to go into to cause quick backlog surplus of financial account of Brazil capital different, Brazil at recent 4 years but in a row acquire hugely usually item account deficit, in 2010 Brazil usually the item deficit be up to USD 47,300,000,000 and have at the same year GDP 2.3%, but in 2011 usually the item account deficit further increase Gao to USD 52,600,000,000.Further exhumation Brazil usually item account item, we discover, Brazil usually the source of item account deficit is very special, then Brazil of usually item account deficit not from trade the receipt and expenditure form, but is caused by"income item unfavorable variance".In fact, inside about ten years, the trade receipt and expenditure whole performance of the Brazil is better, if remove service item, the merchandise trade of Brazil is often year surplus.The income item maintains large-scale unfavorable variance over a long period of time, is the last few years, Brazil usually the root reason of the item huge deficit.The income item unfavorable variance is caused by the investment income unfavorable variance.The income item includes employee's guerdon and investment income two, all of the overwhelming majority of income item unfavorable variance is BE caused by the investment income unfavorable variance, invest income unfavorable variance to is basic and then represent the whole unfavorable variance of income item.The investment income unfavorable variance of Brazil is up to USD 39,500,000,000 in 2010 and takes up 2.2% of GDP for about 1.9%, Brazil paying being USD 46,900,000,000 for the actual income(debit item) of international capital, at the same year with the ratio of GDP.The Brazil pays toward the international capital in 2011 of the actual income be up to USD 58,100,000,000 and together compare to increase above 20%, the clean investment income also acquires the unfavorable variance of being up to USD 47,300,000,000.In this year, Brazil trade surplus growth is USD 20,200,000,000.Invest income to subdivide into direct investment income, combination investment income and other investment incomes, directly invest income to have the biggest specific weight among them, secondly is combination investment income.In 2011, the Brazil directly invests the income unfavorable variance as USD 29,600,000,000 and takes up above 60% of the total investment income unfavorable variance and combines to invest income unfavorable variance USD 12,200,000,000, two add up have total investment income unfavorable variance of the specific weight approach 90%.Pay to invest income to know how much so the Brazil exactly need border capital to for the country pay annually how much investmentIncome?According to Brazil central bank data, 2000~2011 years, the Brazil invests an income item the unfavorable variance total amount is up to USD 338,700,000,000, the oversea investment income of Brazil takes up 20% of GDP(2.1 U.S. dollar) for USD 77,400,000,000, but international capital then being up to USD 416,100,000,000 in the investment income of Brazil, its scale being 1.3 times that of Brazil storage property(USD 317,100,000,000), .But the trade receipt and expenditure of Brazil same period surplus(include merchandise kimono duty) the total scale is USD 139,500,000,000, the merchandise trades a long-term surplus, and the same period total scale is USD 347,800,000,000.Can do a comparison like this again from here:Trade surplus of Brazil 12 years, far not enough with pay the international capital is in the Brazil of investment income;Even if remove service item, Brazil all merchandise surpluses of 12 years are still not enough with pay the international capital is in the Brazil of investment income;But if 12 in the last yearses in the Brazil all merchandise surpluses and overseas invest income to add together(USD 425,200,000,000), just just enough the international capital investment for paying USD 416,100,000,000 income.Is also say, 12 in the last yearses, the investment income of international capital, have already made the Brazil pay investment income in all merchandise resources export income and overseas.Under the idea of GDP of high growth, foreign exchange storage, the Brazil has already become be for the country worthy of the name a border capital part-time job of clean liabilities country.The international capital greatly enters a big GDP high growth, Gao interest rate, the gold brick concept adds a body and make the Brazil become a new century international investment and speculation capital most is one of the newly arisen market of favor.But because it opens of financial market, under the background of global economy financial crisis, the Brazil also becomes international capital to greatly enter the ground of big.This makes Brazil market more be subjected to international financial market motion or risk emotion of or so, rather than from the economic financial condition decision of the Brazil our country.The financial crisis that breaks out in 2008 well displayed a Brazil stock market, exchange rate to be subjected to an international financial situation or so phenomenon to us.2008 annuities melt a crisis explosion, international capital significant run off Brazil:Quarterly degree in 2008 Brazil capital the financial account surplus is USD 22,400,000,000, but along with the explosion of financial crisis, till 2008 the four seasons degree, the Brazil capital financial account turns into USD 24,700,000,000: clean run off.In this period, Brazil stock market experienced a slump, this currency also significantly depreciates.On May 20, 2008, Brazil stock market sees a crest, the BVSP stock index attains 73516:00, 2008 the end of every years, BVSP falls into 37550:00, the fall is 48.92%, if lowest value(29435:00) of whole year computes by October 22, in May end till the end of October, Brazil stock market tumbled to be close to 60% in 5 months.On September 14, 2008, thunder Man application bankruptcy, Brazil stock market the opening quotations tumble 7.59% on Monday(on the 15th), but on that day standard Pu Er index number fall only is 4.71%.2008 annuities resulting in to°from American subprime mortgage crisis melt a crisis and also let the second Er of Brazil thunder significantly depreciate:To December 8, the August, 2008's Brazil thunder second Er exchanges U.S. dollar depreciation to be up to 38%, but USD/BRL exchange rate from 1.55 rises to 2.5, the rise is up to 60% or so;To the end of the year, the August, 2008's Brazil thunder second Er exchanges U.S.mens sunglasses dollar to depreciate 33%, the USD/BRL rise is 50%.The end of 2008 and 2009 the beginning of the years, financial crisis most dark period be over, the international financial situation Qi is steady, at beautiful allied keep through a quantity turn relaxed policy to world infusion a huge sum of liquidity after, the Brazil welcomes of is more crary capital flows out go into, the stock market appears to soar and the currency is significant to revalue.Brazil capital in 2009 financial account the clean inflow is increased with crary speed, the degree re- returns to all the year round clean flow into above USD 30,000,000,000, but Brazil stock market soar at the same time, the currency re- revalue, both are all basic to return to the level of the front of financial crisis.Isn't only 2008 annuities to melt a crisis thus in fact, whenever the international financial market risk appears of, the Brazil stock market, currency all will appear adjustment, but when the international market risk is tended to even slow, the Brazil stock market, currency again soar again.International capital of big enter the big capital that profoundly influences Brazil of market, and this also comes to a decision Brazil as the sub- market of international big market, the trend of its stock market, currency is decided by the motion moderate breezes of international market insurance hobby.From here we can predict:The first, the capital market of Brazil has serious"international attribute", the its stock market, currency trend and international financial market risk index number have an obvious connection;The second, whenever the important risk breaks out in international market of, the Brazil is by all means subjected to influence, and because capital of big enter a big, the influence that it is subjected to also usually expresses violent and turbulent;The third, the Brazil is "risk property" that a nation belongs to the name matches the reality, opposite should of the United States then belong to "avoid insurance property" and only have be international market to good, "risk property" would be subjected to favor, but once the direction of wind converses, in spite of the international capital therein acquire many Gao income, all finally will choose distress sale, return to the United States to avoid insurance, wait until risk to lower again wait for an opportunity to flow out go into.The Brazil are very deep for our apocalypses, it teaches also very greatly aggrieved.From Brazil the end chose to outward open last century, the international capital was large-scale to flow out to go into, push Brazil to become a gold of brick big country, also made big country of this gold brick suffer from the capital.12 in the last yearses, the international capital flows out to go into to make the Brazil become a huge clean liabilities country, and due to paying a large amount of investment income to the international capital the Brazil becomes the nation that does a part-time job for international capital.International capital while laying hands on a huge sum of investment income, it greatly enters the characteristic of big and makes Brazil capital market again and again experience violent motion.From here view, the Brazil is like also a is urged by the international capital to rarely try to make profit machine, is a be again and again started to blow, the sting break, again start to blow of foam machine, in a circulations, the Brazil market isn't predominated by Brazil policy.
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